After breaking their long trophy drought last season by lifting the FA Cup, Manchester City have a chance to progress in the Europa League this evening when they take on Porto at the Etihad Arena. The game has been brought forward because Manchester United are also at home at the same stage of the competition. City dug out an impressive 2-1 victory away to Porto at the Dragao where Porto rarely lose.

There have been significant rights of passage with this City side and their progression has been clear to see. Qualifying for the Champions League was a big step as was winning the Cup. Despite not qualifying from their group they did defeat Bayern Munich 2-0 and winning 2-1 in Porto shows that they are gradually acquiring European experience.

Whether that will come soon enough for them to lift the Europa League is open to debate but they should have the firepower to see off Porto this evening. It has come as a shock to see Carlos Tevez return to City but clearly no other club wanted him badly enough to pay the asking price. The Europa League is a tough competition to win and you cannot just say that United and City will be favourites. Valencia will also have a strong say in where this trophy goes to at the end of the season.

Basel produced one of the shocks of the group stages when they ousted an under performing Manchester United side by holding them 3-3 at Old Trafford and then beating them 2-1 at home. But football is all about performance levels and the fact that United have been in three of the past four Champions League finals doesn't mean as much as current form and United were not playing well at the time.

But Bayern have been hugely impressive and are rightly in the frame to win the tournament this year. So it is difficult to see any further progression for Basel who seem to have reached their maximum potential in terms of results. Bayern are launching a two front attack again on league and European Cup just like their successful season of 2001.

Marseilles take on the 2010 Champions Inter Milan at the Velodrome and could stand an outside chance of progression. Inter Milan had a very bad start to the season but have pulled that around in recent months and will start favourites in this tie. It is looking like three Italian sides could be in the last eight after good wins for AC Milan and Napoli against the English teams.

This evening sees Real Madrid take on CSKA Moscow of Russia in the last 32 of the Champions League. Moscow have a good record at home and many big teams have gone to CSKA in the past and come away with a defeat. So Jose Mourinho will be all too aware of the threat that Moscow create to his hopes of landing a third Champions League title with three different clubs.

CSKA do not possess any star players but their work ethic is second to none. That work ethic and never say die attitude landed them the UEFA Cup as recently as 2005 and Russian clubs have been having something of a resurgence of late. It would be difficult to see any result other than a Madrid win over two legs even if they suffer defeat in Moscow this evening.

However CSKA haven't won their own league since 2006 and they are known as a team who sometimes struggles away from home. That does not bode well when you have to travel to a stadium like the Santiago Bernabeu for the return leg in two weeks time. Madrid have been so free and easy finding the back of the net at home that you would feel that Moscow need to win by a couple of goals this evening to stand any chance in the tie.

Saturday saw yet another bad result for Chelsea as they were held at home 1-1 by Championship side Birmingham City in the FA Cup. Andre Villas-Boas is under huge pressure now and another damaging result against Napoli in the Champions League could finish his reign. The problem at Chelsea is several fold but the news is starting to leak out that the players at the club are unhappy at the style of management of Villas-Boas.

Once players become unhappy with the manager then performances drop. Even if you argue that modern top flight footballers are professional then you may be right. But if you are not right mentally then it is hard to correct that unless the reasons have been dealt with or eliminated. It was also rumoured that Didier Drogba did a team talk in the tunnel at half time but the manager refutes this but yet an entire TV production crew witnessed it.

Rumours by sheer definition cannot all be false and Chelsea are clearly not a happy club. So the chances of them being eliminated by a strong Napoli side are real as are the prospects of no English side being in the quarter-finals of the Champions League for many a year after Arsenal were thrashed 4-0 inside the San Siro.

When assessing the style of football teams and their chances of winning the title or even individual games then their style can often be determined by the win percentage and the draw percentage ratios. Let us look at the most successful teams in Europe in terms of their attacking prowess as an example and these are teams like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Manchester United and City as well and probably AC Milan.

It is difficult to play an out and out style of aggression in football without compromising solidity at the back. Very few teams have the players and quality of squad to do this successfully. Either they have defenders that are not as strong as they could be or their style leaves them exposed too much at the back and the defenders that they have cannot cope with that.

Astute managers realise this of course and compromise attacking possibilities to keep things solid. This may be forced upon them by the players that they have at the club or based on other factors. But what this leads to is a team whose points making capacity is limited because of too many drawn games. The difference is that a team can win one game, lose one game and draw one game and be 1pt ahead of a club who have drawn all three games and this is the value of winning football matches.

It is looking increasingly likely that Paris St Germain and Montpellier will battle it out for the title in Ligue 1 in France this season with Lille being 8pts behind the leaders with 15 games to go. But what could be a season defining game takes place this evening when PSG take on their title rivals in Paris and a win for either side could take them a massive step towards the title.

It would make a stunning return to top flight football for Carlo Ancelotti if PSG won the title after being forced out at Chelsea only last season. You have to make PSG favourites because they have the history and the title pedigree compared to Montpellier. Lille and Marseilles just look too far back and have suffered through drawing too many games.

Towards the end of the season with more data to go on then this seems to be indicative of style and if a team tries to alter that then more defeats come as a rule. It is very difficult to achieve the perfect balance for attacking football without compromising the chances of defeat and is why many teams have a higher percentage of draws. But PSG vs Montpellier tonight may just turn out to be the game of the season in Ligue 1.

Juventus have the chance to go back to the top of Serie A in Italy when they take on Catania at home. Meanhwile their nearest title rivals have to wait until Sunday before they go into action. AC Milan travel to face Cesena while Udinese host Cagliari. The situation at the top of the table couldn't be more exciting and AC Milan are currently top by a single point but Juventus have a game in hand.

Milan crushed a woeful Arsenal side 4-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday and they are starting to build momentum now. Only Lazio and Udinese are effectively still in the title race with Udinese being 6pts behind and having ground to make up. Juventus have been on an amazing run in Serie A this season and have gone undefeated in 22 league games since the start of the season.

It is only the fact that they have drawn a huge number of those games that has meant that sides like Milan, Udinese and Lazio are still in with a chance of catching them. The big question is can Juventus go through the entire league season unbeaten? It is a tough task and a tall order but you wouldn't back against them pulling it off.

The final 5th round fixtures kick off on Sunday and one would expect Tottenham Hotspur to take thier place in the quarter-finals based on them being drawn away at Stevenage. If Harry Redknapp is to take the England job then he would love nothing better than to sign off at Tottenham with the double of an FA Cup win and another top four finish in the league.

The other two Sunday ties see Crawley Town take on last years finalists Stoke City. Tony Pulis's team have had another solid season and they are still in the last 32 of the Europa League although they face elimination in that competition after losing 1-0 at home to Valencia on Thursday.

Another team with aspirations of making the final are Liverpool who entertain Gus Poyet's Brighton at Anfield. Brighton have had a great season in the Championship after being promoted last year and are in with a chance of reaching the play-offs. Liverppol of course are already through to the Carling Cup final and are big favourites for that facing Cardiff City of the Championship.

The FA Cup in England has reached the last 16 stage and Arsenal are desperate to put their almost certain Champions League exit to AC Milan behind them. That 4-0 loss in the San Siro clearly hurt Arsene Wenger who is quick to defend his team but he didn't do it on this occasion. So he will hardly be even contemplating another cup exit so soon.

Arsenal are without a trophy since 2005 when they won the cup and short of a miracle in the return leg against Milan or winning the cup this year then they will fall short again. They travel to play a revitalised Sunderland who have shown massive improvement under Martin O'Neill. Another team under pressure are Chelsea but they have a slightly easier time of it being drawn at home to Birmingham City.

It would help Andre Villas-Boas hugely if he could land a trophy in his first season. The league has gone and he only has the Champions League and FA Cup to fight for. But there have already been big name casualties with both Manchester clubs biting the dust in the early rounds. But pressure is mounting on both Arsene Wenger and Andre Villas-Boas and it is a big few days for both of these managers and further bad results may lead to more than just a few unhappy fans.

Real Madrid have an opportunity this weekend to extend their already impressive 10pt lead over nearest title rivals Barcelona when they host Racing Santander at the Bernabeu. Barcelona on the other hand entertain third placed Valencia the following day and victory for Madrid could heap even more pressure on their great rivals. Many are saying that the title race is over and it is difficult to see Barcelona overhauling the points total that Madrid are likely to end up with.

Even if Real suffer a slump in form then it is still difficult to see how Barcelona can stop them. However they do have the edge over a talented Valencia side and they beat them recently at the Nou Camp in the Copa del Rey semi-final. However league games are different and if Valencia set themselves up for a draw and Barcelona find it difficult to break them down then this game could end up as yet another frustrating drawn game for the champions.

Racing Santander are desperate for points themselves though and are currently third from bottom and in relegation trouble with only 23pts. It is difficult to see them taking anything this weekend and with only 16 games to go then each victory takes Real that little bit closer to the title that they so cherish after being in the shadow of Barcelona for a while.

Staying with the theme of the Europa League then this seasons competition is very instructive from a betting point of view. All of the pros will be looking for value outside of the obvious big two of Manchester United and City who are such obvious stand out teams that the odds will be contracted by the sheer hype alone. But there are question marks against both of these two teams winning the competition.

The prize money in the Europa League is simply not a big enough incentive for them to do well and they are both fighting each other for the Premier League title which dwarfs the Europa League in prize money. So to find value means looking further down the list and to teams that have top class outfits from tough leagues who also have a strong European pedigree.

On that list are teams like Porto, Atletico Madrid, Lazio, Sporting Lisbon, Valencia and PSV Eindhoven. These six teams could end up being the real favourites for this competition and value could come from them. However if you look further down the list then you come to teams like Schalke who never really capture the imagination but yet were Champions League semi-finalists last term. Teams like Athletic Bilbao, Olympiakos, FC Twente, Udinese and Besiktas could all give you a good run for your money at much better odds than City and United.

The Europa League has already started but the bulk of the last 32 action begins on Thursday. There are some real stand out ties and none more so than Ajax vs Manchester United. With both United and City taking unexpected tumbles in the Champions League then the field for this seasons Europa League has been really boosted.

It has been a long time since Ajax had a great European side and you have to go back to thier great side of the 90's when they lifted the Champions League. Manchester United are also a team in transition somewhat and their great side of 1999 and 2008-2009 is no more and there are a lot of young players in the team now that need to mature. Another great fixture on Thursday sees Porto play Manchester City.

City will start favourites for this tie but you would have to say that it is more of an even contest than what many believe. Porto have great experience of European football and City do not and have struggled so far this season. Lazio vs Atletico Madrid also looks a great tie while Stoke City vs Valencia could also be interesting as well.  

There are two more Champions League games on Wednesday evening and the pick of the two is at the San Siro where AC Milan take on Arsenal. In the previous few years then you would have made Arsenal favourites for this tie but even Arsenal would have struggled to match the great Milan sides of the nineties. However life isn't quite so easy now for Arsene Wenger and his side currently are 4th in the league and struggling to be in next season's competition.

To be fair then it is difficult to see either club winning the tournament and Barcelona and Real Madrid look firm favourites for that. Although you have to respect the credentials of sides like Bayern Munich, AC Milan and Inter Milan. It is difficult to also see any English side reaching the final this year after the shock departures of Manchester City and United into the Europa League.

Only Chelsea and Arsenal remain and both teams do not appear strong enough to win this competition. AC Milan start favourites and rightly so and they have the experience to win over two legs against a talented but inconsistent Arsenal team. The other tie on Wednesday sees Zenit St Petersburg play Benfica in a match that is very hard to call.

Barcelona travel to play Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday in a tie that is now taking on even more importance for them after the devastating result in La Liga on Saturday night. They rested key players like Xavi, Iniesta and Fabregas and ultimately paid the price and were beaten 3-2 by Osasuna. With Real Madrid beating Levante 4-2 last night then this leaves Barcelona 10pts adrift of Real Madrid at the top of La Liga.

Surely the title has slipped away now and to be saying that in February is absolutely staggering. So the question is can Barcelona pick up the Champions League or Copa del Rey as compensation? Many expect them to be really up for the Leverkusen tie seeing the Champions League as their final chance for a big trophy this season. That may be all too much for Leverkusen to handle.

However that can swing both ways as well and the pressure could increase on Barcelona and it is difficult to predict how they will handle it. I think the lessons have been clear this term and this is that if you have the right players then you can stop Barcelona this season more than last season. The other game in the Champions League tonight sees the surprise package of Apoel Nicosia travel to play Lyon. Apoel have done amazingly well in the Champions League but this may just be one step too far for them.

Barcelona's 3-2 defeat to Osasuna last night sent shock waves throughout La Liga and has handed Real Madrid a massive opportunity to move 10pts clear. If that happens then that lead will probably be decisive. But just what has happened to Barcelona this season? They have clearly not been firing like they were last season and they have won just four times in their last 11 league fixtures away from the Nou Camp.

Many people will point to the fact that Pep Guardiola rested several key players ahead of their Champions League tie against Bayer Leverkusen and that has come back to haunt him. Was that a total misread of the threat that Osasuna would pose to his team or an admission that the title is beyond them? Surely Guardiola cannot be giving up yet when they were only 7pts behind and with them having to play Real at the Nou Camp.

It will be interesting to see just how well Barcelona perform in the Champions League but defeats can be a problem because other teams begin to fear you less. The aura that has surrounded Barcelona over the past two years has certainly began to crumble in La Liga for sure. But when you leave Xavi, Iniesta and Fabregas on the bench then you cannot be surprised by the result.

Manchester City have the chance to regain top spot today when they travel to play Aston Villa at Villa Park. They now trail United by a single point after United beat Liverpool in a fiery exchange at Old Trafford yesterday. The game was marred by incidents before the game, at half time and at the final whistle and one has think that there will be consequences from this.

But football is bigger than any two individuals and one thing is clear, after United fought back from 3-0 down to draw 3-3 against Chelsea and then beat fierce rivals Liverpool 2-1 then City will have to fight every step of the way to take the title from United this season. But they clearly have the squad to do it.

Aston Villa on the other hand are only 7pts clear of the drop and while you would never expect them to go down, they have had a relatively mediocre season by their standards. They just haven't performed as a unit often enough and their results have been a reflection of that. The other game today is a classic midlands derby between relegation candidates West Brom and Wolves. If West Brom can win this then this will take them 8pts clear of the drop and that cushion should see them safe.

Matchday 22 in La Liga looks like two straight forward wins for the leaders Real Madrid and Barcelona. With only 17 games to go and Real Madrid having a 7pt lead then every little relatively easy game like this for Madrid effectively takes them one step nearer the title. Winning La Liga will be extra special this season because it will bring to an end the dominance of Pep Guardiola's Barcelona team in the league.

Clearly only Real Madrid can stop the might of Barcelona and Mourinho is doing a fantastic job at this time. Whether he wil still be at the Bernabeu next season is open to debate. In any other league then when the leaders play the team in fourth position then you expect a close game. But Levante provide the opposition at the Bernabeu and they have already lost 7 games this season.

You simply do not expect Real to lose at home to any side except Barcelona and Guardiola has been getting the better of Mourinho tactically in the recent encounters. What has cost Barcelona this season has been too many drawn games but Real really go for the jugular when they play hence their higher goals scored total. Barcelona travel to play Osasuna and could close the gap to 4pts should they win as they play before Real.

The equation is pretty simple now, four teams into one space simply does not go. But that is the situation that we are in with regards the final Champions League position in the Premier League. City and United are certain to finish in the top four and it is becoming increasingly unlikely that Spurs with their 8pt cushion will let their place slip either and especially now that Harry Redknapp is back at the helm after his court ordeal.

There is only 4pts difference between Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool and it is looking as if it will go down to the wire. The two clubs who will be hit the hardest by losing Champions League football will be Chelsea and Arsenal. Liverpool have been out of the Champions League for a while and Newcastle don't expect to be in it. But Arsenal and Chelsea are Champions League regulars and not to be in that competition next year would be a huge blow.

Both Arsenal and Chelsea face tricky ties away to Sunderland and Everton respectively and no team will fancy travelling to face Sunderland at this time. They have been rejuvenated since Martin O'Neill took over. Spurs on the other hand entertain Newcastle in what will be one of the matches of the day after United vs Liverpool.

Manchester United have a chance to go top of the league tomorrow when they play Liverpool at Old Trafford. Just days after Liverpool dumped United out of the FA Cup then this represents a serious chance for revenge. United trail neighbours City by 2pts but Liverpool would love to put a dent in United's title charge this season and help to prevent them from recording a 20th title success.

Liverpool on the other hand are still in contention for a Champions League place. They may be 7th in the league but they are only 4pts behind fourth placed Chelsea at this time. It may prove to be another explosive encounter and it will be interesting to see if both Patrice Evra and Luis Suarez play after the race row that has exploded recently.

Liverpool have been in United's shadow for a long time now and they themselves have gone 22 years without winning the league. What has really hurt Liverpool this season is that they have suffered from too many drawn games. This has always been their Achilles heel and they have been drawing games that they really should have taken full points from.

It has often been said that managing the England national team is the "impossible job". A lack of passion for international football and a league that is just too dominant in terms of financial potential coupled with a lack of home grown players are all cited as reasons for England not being successful at International level for a long time. Fabio Capello's shock resignation yesterday sent shock waves throughout Europe and especially in England and Italy.

But who will succeed him and more importantly who will want to succeed him? The latest betting sees Harry Redknapp as the firm favourite but there are other reasonably priced contenders as well including Jose Mourinho who is looking increasingly likely to not be at Real Madrid next season. Would Mourinho take any other national job apart from Portugal? It is doubtful whether even Mourinho would weave his magic with England.

The England team now has a young side that is tipped not to do well at the 2012 Euro's and so whoever comes in is unlikely to be successful in that tournament. Other names that are being quoted are Guus Hiddink who has said that he would welcome an approach from the FA. The saga surrounding John Terry clearly led to all this but the sentiment now will be to go for an English manager and there is really only one outstanding candidate.......but will Spurs release him?

Barcelona take on Valencia tonight in the Nou Camp and have the chance to reach another Copa del Rey final after narrowly losing out to Real Madrid last season. The winners of this tie will play Athletic Bilbao who brushed aside Mirandes 6-2 last night inside the San Mames stadium.

Barcelona are firm favourites going into this tie after drawing the first leg in Valencia 1-1. It is also a match that many people feel Barcelona need to win as well based on their 7pt deficit to Real Madrid in the league. It is looking increasingly likely that Barcelona will not retain their league title and many people are even saying that this could be Pep Guardiola's final season at the Nou Camp.

If that is the case then he certainly will not want to end it without a trophy. Valencia are a powerful side though who have done well against Barcelona in the past and could stifle them again in the second leg. Many experts believe that Valencia's best chance is to keep the game tight and not to allow the likes of Xavi, Iniesta and Fabregas too much dominance in midfield. This is easier said than done of course and if you concentrate too much on them then you leave the likes of Messi free to roam.

Moving into February and this is a stage where the top teams tend to push on for the title. No team in Germany has that experience more than Bayern Munich. They host Kaiserslautern this weekend and will be looking to get back to winning ways after being held 1-1 at Hamburg last week. It is difficult for any team in Germany to match the financial muscle of Bayern Munich and especially over a long period of time.

However Bayern trail Borussia Dortmund by 2pts and the race for the title in Germany is one of the most exciting in the whole of Europe. No less than four clubs are all in with a shout of the title this year and are all within 3pts of each other after 20 games. It is appearing to be the case that the other clubs including Werder Bremen are too far back and simply have too many teams to overcome.

Schalke 04 could cause a surprise again but they could lose ground this weekend because they face a tough trip to fellow title hopefuls Borussia Moenchengladbach. Dortmund on the other hand play hosts to Bayer Leverkusen who are on the fringe of qualifying for Europe and so have plenty to play for. It is going to be fascinating to see how the chase for the title in the Bundesliga unfolds this season.

Looking at league tables this far into the season and also in past seasons can be very instructive and basic league table data can assist us in placing bets with regards to who the prospective league champions may be in that league. For a team to win the league then it needs to amass more points than any other team. But in order to do that then this team needs to overcome the weighting factor regarding how many points are available to be won overall.

We already saw in the last post just how important getting 3pts was over drawing and winning games is paramount to winning league titles as a rule. So what we have is a framework for selecting teams who are likely to win titles more often than not and the win ratio is very instructive here. If a team is winning 75% or more of their games past the halfway mark of the season then this is a powerful indicator that this side has a game plan that is very effective at getting three points. It also indicates that it is unlikely to be based on luck because the sample size is much larger.

If the win percentage is very high then this by itself can be a factor in deciding if this team will win the league like with Manchester City in England and Real Madrid in Spain. There are also variables of this strategy like with Juventus in Serie A who have a lesser win ratio but have offset that with a large number of draws with zero defeats. This is usually not enough to win a title if another team demonstrates the desired win rate percentage but in this instance their nearest rivals AC Milan are losing too many games and so Juventus could buck the trend in this instance.

Most people are quick to put their money onto the favourite in a football game but there are many reasons why favourites lose a game of football and knowing and understanding them can help you to find bets where the expected result may just not happen.

1. KEY EVENTS

Football matches revolve around a tiny number of key events which are mainly goals. Because defences dominate attacks then goals are few in number. So when you get so few key events then the chance of an upset is far greater.

2. LUCK

This is linked to point number one because luck then plays a greater part in the result. How many times have you seen a team miss several chances only to then concede at the other end and lose or draw a game that they should have won.

3. TIME LIMIT

A football match has a very short time limit compared to other sports. Ninety minutes is not long enough to prove superiority in terms of winning and when you factor this in with points one and two then it is clear that upsets can happen.

4. KEY INJURIES / SUSPENSIONS

Some teams with bigger squads can simply ride injuries and suspensions more than other teams. One or two players may not matter but an injury or two to a key player is all it takes to eliminate any edge for the superior side.

5. LACK OF MOTIVATION

Are the favourites motivated to win the game? This may sound silly on the surface but quite often superior teams can and do lack motivation in certain games. Then when a favourite is losing 2-0 with time running out then they haven't got the time to retrieve the result.

6. BAD DECISIONS

A bad decision by a referee or linesman can be all it takes for a superior team to lose and so there is much that happens in a game of football that is out of their control. Once again this gets back to luck and is a variation of it but the role of the officials is a key factor in the result.

7. OVERALL DOMINANCE

In many instances then the dominance of the supposed superior team is not as great as what many people think within the confines of a single game of football. Teams tend to need a much longer series of games to prove themselves.

8. HOME ADVANTAGE

The statistics that dictate how often teams win at home compared to away make this reason pretty conclusive. Favourites are much more vulnerable away than at home with minimal support behind them while the home team who may not take many fans to away games but could have a full house of passionate support behind them at home.

]]> Great teams, top players and bitter rivalries. It’s the Bundesliga, and It might just be the biggest and best league in Europe. It’s another wide open season, with Bayern looking to get back on top after a bad year at the Allianz. Who’ll go toe-to-toe with the men from Munich? Click here to catch our Highlights Video from round 20!]]>

There are huge differences with regards to successful betting from sport to sport. All professional sports bettors fundamentally understand the sports that they bet on from a betting sense. It is a myth to assume or to think that you need to have almost encyclopaedic knowledge of a certain sport to be able to make money at it. Quite often some of the worst sports bettors are the types who know loads of facts and data.

There are certain sports where consistent results are very hard to achieve simply because there is far more variance in the game and skill does not dominate as often. Sports like Tennis for example exhibit this and the best performers like Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Federer have a very high percentage of games won to games lost.

However lower down the pecking order then life isn't so straight forward and many players lack the consistency to string results together. Golf is another sport where winning back to back tournaments is very tough. So you can often use this almost "see-saw" like effect to your advantage. Golfers only have four days and 72 holes to play well but whatever they do may not be enough as in golf then you simply cannot control what other players are doing and so much of what you do is geared around playing as well as you can but almost everything else that happens in the event is out of your control.

Over the next 24 hours or so then Tottenham have a chance to at least get a foot hold back into the title race again. With their manager Harry Redknapp still in court then things are not easy for them and they face a daunting trip to Anfield on Monday evening. Liverpool have had two very impressive results in the two cup competitions after their defeat away at Bolton.

Boss Kenny Dalglish asked for a response and he got it against City in the Carling Cup and against United in the FA Cup. But Liverpool themselves are still chasing fourth place and a Champions League spot and if Chelsea lose at home to United today and they beat Spurs on Monday evening then Liverpool will be within touching distance of that.

Newcastle United have done fantastic this season under Alan Pardew and they take on Aston Villa at St James Park today in a game that should they win it would take them to 5th spot and only goal difference seperating them from Chelsea should Chelsea lose against United. It is becoming a very exciting time in the Premier League with battles taking place for the title, Europe and relegation.

It is at this stage of the season that you can start to build a picture of how various teams play based on simple goals scored and goals conceded. It is not always easy to do this during the first half of the season for numerous reasons. New players take time to bed in, teams may be adjusting to a new division and tactics can be affected by players coming back from the close season. If a team has made numerous changes to its playing personnel then that too can have a huge impact of tactics.

When the tactics change then so does the ability to be able to score goals and to defend against other teams scoring them. So if you see a teams stats after say 20 games and they have scored 21 goals and conceded 17 then this is a sure sign that a team is set up to keep things tight. This reduction in offensive capability is more than likely the direct result of deliberate tactics on behalf of the manager.

Likewise if a team that is involved in a large number of high scoring games may be doing so because they either cannot defend of this may be a deliberate tactic by the manager if he felt that this was the best way to get a result. The way that points are distributed in a football match means that more weighting is given to winning than drawing. Clearly this is seen by a team who could in theory go the entire league season unbeaten but could be relegated if they drew every single game.

Andre Villas-Boas has been rather fortunate to still be in a job at Chelsea based on the history of recent managers and how each of them performed. Avram Grant came runner up in the league and made a Champions League final and that still wasn't enough to please owner Roman Abramovich. Clearly though the owner feels the need for continuity and with Chelsea laying in 4th position in the league in February then it may be a bad time to get rid of the manager.

Chelsea couldn't have a much tougher game on Sunday as they host Manchester United at Stamford Bridge in a game that will go some way towards deciding the title. Once upon a time and these two teams would have been fighting it out for the title but with Chelsea 12pts behind with only 15 games to go then they are surely out of it and have too much to do.

This is the time of the season when United step up a gear but Chelsea will not have welcomed the fact that John Terry was stripped of the England captaincy yesterday and that will have hardly helped the harmony within the squad. Chelsea are in a real battle now to claim Champions League football next season with Newcastle, Arsenal and Liverpool all pushing them hard for a top four finish.

It is a little too soon to suggest that the wheels are coming off Manchester City's season but things haven't gone well for them over the past couple of months. While results haven't been disastrous.....they have been sporadic. Dumped out of the Champions League, Carling Cup and FA Cup is hardly what City would have expected last December going into February.

The whole Carlos Tevez affair may have had a damaging effect on the club and more than what many people realise. It is very difficult for any club to win the title that doesn't have harmony within the squad and on top of three cup exits then they have also let slip a 5pt lead in the league. This is the time of year when United usually turn up the pressure and they are favourites now in many peoples eyes.

City host Fulham at the Etihad Arena on Saturday tea time in a game that many feel they must win now that United are only behind them on goal difference. Fulham though have been enjoying improved results over the past few weeks and are now in 13th place in the league a full 9pts clear of the drop zone. Martin Jol had a tricky start to the season but he has managed to turn things around but you would expect that from such a high quality manager. Fulham are a compact little outfit with many quality players and will pose City numerous problems if they don't perform to their best.

The French have probably just about recovered from their heart breaking near miss in the 2011 Rugby World Cup final. So in many aspects this makes them favourites in this years six nations. However it is England who are the defending champions but they have struggled over the past year or so which culminated in a quarter-final defeat to France and the exit of coach Martin Johnson.

There are several nations in with a shout of lifting the Six Nations event and Wales who came so close to beating France in the World Cup semi-final will feel that they have a great chance as well. The two weakest teams appear to be Scotland and Italy and it is hard to see them competing for first place. If England can raise their game then they may go close but it appears to be between France, Wales and Ireland this year.

A lot depends on the fixtures and this makes the Six Nations quite lop sided because if you happen to be drawn at home to one of the other favourites then this is a big advantage. France, Ireland and Wales are all very strong at home but it is critical to get away to a good start in these events. All of the top four sides can beat each other and so winning the Grand Slam will prove to be very difficult this year.

Valencia host Barcelona this evening in the 1st leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final and Barcelona go into this game not only as clear favourites but also under some pressure to win this competition. Winning the Champions League is difficult for any club and they trail league leaders Real Madrid by some margin and so silverware is not guaranteed in either of those competitions for the Nou Camp outfit.

So victory in the Copa del Rey is as important to Barcelona this season as it was to Real Madrid last season. Valencia though are not the power that they used to be that took them to back to back Champions League finals a few years ago when they were one of the most feared sides in Europe. They have a poor recent record against Barcelona although apart from their recent 3-0 defeat at the Nou Camp, they haven't been defeated heavily in any of their last five games against Barce in La Liga and that has included two draws.

They will be hoping to simply go into the second leg at the Nou Camp still in with a chance. Barcelona while being behind Madrid in the league have been excellent this season in both the league and in Europe. What has cost them in the league is simply too many drawn games but these do not hurt them anywhere near as much in cup competitions. It is fairly certain that a draw this evening will make Pep Guardiola a very happy man.

Juventus still remain at the top of Serie A despite some very stiff competition. They have been through a very tough few seasons after being relegated to Serie B and they have fought back to the top of the pile once again overtaking both Milan clubs. They currently lead AC Milan by a single point and Inter Milan by 9pts. While teams like Inter Milan and Lazio are not out of the running, they both have a lot of catching up to do.

Udinese are also in the hunt only 6pts behind Juventus and they host Lecce this evening in a game that they absolutely must win to keep up their chase of the leading two clubs. AC Milan on the other hand have the chance to go top as Juventus do not play while they travel to face Lazio in Rome. Lazio themselves will see this as a great potential opportunity to close the gap on one of the leading clubs and confidence is high after winning 3-0 at Chievo at the weekend.

It is at this stage of the season though where AC Milan really start to exert their power and it would not be surprising to see them pull away during the final stages of the season. You have to go back to 2003 to find a winner of Serie A that didn't come from Milan and so it may be about time to halt that run but all of the teams chasing the title will have their work cut out to stop AC Milan.

Wednesday evening sees the completion of the midweek football fixtures in the Premier League and Arsenal travel to the Reebok Stadium to play Bolton in a fixture that they have not enjoyed in recent seasons. Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger has been a critic of Bolton's physical style in the past and so it will be interesting to see how physical tonights game really is.

Arsenal for the first time in years are under serious threat in terms of Champions League qualification and many Arsenal fans are not happy. There was very loud booing at half time when they trailed Aston Villa 2-0 at home in the 4th round of the FA Cup on Sunday......a match that Arsenal turned around and won 3-2. The fact of the matter is that the big three of United, City and Chelsea are ahead of Arsenal financially and that isn't really going to change yet.

So Arsenal were always likely to be locked in a battle to get into the top four with Spurs and Liverpool and that is a battle that they could easily lose. Sunderland under new boss Martin O'Neill have leapt up the table in recent weeks and they simply will not be relegated now. They entertain a Norwich side who have really impressed this season and who no longer look to be relegation candidates either.