Already there are warning signs for Andy Murray never winning a slam event after being knocked out in the 4th round of the US Open. While being 23 years of age leaves plenty of time on his side, I really don’t think that he would be able to win one at 28 years of age. Most of the major players won their first slam by the time they were 23 years of age. Murray has a habit of being defensive at the wrong times.

He seems to go into his shell during the latter stages of slams and this is going to be difficult to correct. Then when he does try to correct it he then becomes reckless and doesn’t seem to find the right balance. Personally I think he has 4 years left to effectively win a slam as the longer he goes on then it will get tougher mentally. That is only 16 tournaments in my mind and if you take away the ones where he is not fit either physically or mentally then that doesn’t leave an awful lot left.

Federer was beaten yesterday by Robin Soderling in the quarter-finals which brings to an end his remarkable run of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals……..a feat that may take a long time to be beaten. It is rather fortunate for Federer that he broke his French Open duck last year because next year will see him another year older and the clay isn’t his favourite surface.

You would have to say that Federer must be a favourite never to win this tournament again although you would never dare write him off. The big question is now, can Rafael Nadal reproduce his best to win back the title he used to own not too long ago.

His four consecutive titles here between 2005-2008 was a major factor behind why Federer failed to win for so long. But Nadal hasn’t won a slam since the Australian Open in January 2009 so we are going back nearly 18 months for a Nadal major victory.

He has had terrible injuries in that time of course which threatened his very career at the top. At one stage it looked a certainty that Nadal would surpass Federer for the most slams but with Federer kicking on to 16 and Nadal still on 6 and having injury worries then that is a long way off.

I would put Nadal at his best as the best player there has ever been but the price that he has paid for that and the sheer energy that he puts into matches could be his Achilles heel.

Those same outlooks were taking it for granted that Rafael Nadal would automatically overtake Federer for the number of slams. Look at him now, stuck on 5 and wracked by injuries and Federer on a staggering 16!

With Nadal out of the way to a certain extent then the effect of Federer’s increasing years has been offset by the injuries to Nadal when it comes to his chances of winning slams.

But once again Murray fails to produce in a final of a slam. He didn’t really play until the third set and he still blew a 5-2 lead even then and not to mention four set points.

It was interesting listening to Boris Becker, Sue Barker and Tim Henman speak in the BBC studio about Murray’s naturally defensive style. They also went on to say that it kicks in during pressure situations and that Murray tends to wait for an opponent to lose a slam final than to actively go out and win it.

If this is the case then Murray may have a psychological problem. If he is becoming too defensive then the chances are that his opponent whoever that is in the final will not be. But the question must now be asked, he will no doubt be aware of this problem and will be trying to correct it but will this then lead to an over reaction and to him playing rash shots?

The facts are that Murray had a plus score against Federer in their respective head to heads. But yet they have played six sets in grand slam finals now and the score is 0-6 to Federer in sets…..read into that what you will.

See you soon

Carl
Come and try betting on sports on bwin?

Federer is currently 28 and while that isnt old, it is getting a little long in the tooth. Only his sublime ability keeps him at the top. You must remember though that Federer has really taken advantage of the fact that Nadal has been injured winning both the French and Wimbledon. But this US Open final defeat could be the biggest indication yet that Federer is on the decline when it comes to winning slams. I will certainly be looking to lay him at the Australian Open next year.

When Nadal gets full fitness again, couple this with Andy Murray making strides all the time and Andy Roddick having a new lease of life. When you factor in the emergence of Del Potro then Federers days could be numbered when it comes to winning slams. To stay winning slams at aged 30+ plus then you really are hoping that no one of any note comes through the ranks. With the competition now in tennis then this is asking too much.

Federer may win one or two more but I dont think that he will reach 20. What you have to remember is that he has won the last five US Opens so he basically owned this tournament…..even Nadal couldnt beat him here. But Roddick really should have beaten Federer at Wimbledon in the final and had Nadal not been injured then it is unlikely that Federer would have got past him in the French.

Murray still needs to make the breakthrough in slams by winning one but come the Australian Open, no doubt that Federer will be very short and guess who will be opposing him this time once again 

see you soon and take care

Carl

Then all hell broke loose as Serena flipped again and she was docked a point and thus the match. I have had a feeling that Clijsters would do well in this event, a feeling is hardly scientific and my feelings have a habit of being wrong. Like my feeling that Sheffield United were too short against Derby County yesterday although in fairness the match was heading for a 0-0 until United scored from a free kick ten minutes from the end.

But tennis always fascinates me as a betting medium as do all sports that are not team events. I like the psychological factors that are involved and I must say that tennis fascinates me with its constant ebbs and flows. I think that it is definitely possible to make money out of any form of sports betting but you MUST specialise. I can often get away with it through experience but even then the best thing to do is to back off and not bet most of the time.

I am certain that my bottom line could be far better if I simply had fewer bets. Likel yesterday for instance, the Derby vs SU game should have been swerved but if I had done that then I woudnt have been having a bet for yesterdays football……its a crime to do that and I know better but I still did it. As it happens the price that I took for United wasnt too far out of whack but it didnt fit my system so I should have swerved it.

But tennis always reminds me of horse racing in so much as your fancy may not be suited to the ground. Quite often certain styles prohibit some players from playing well against others on certain surfaces and if you can take the time to do your homework then value can often be found…….but DO SPECIALISE.

see you soon

Carl