There is often a misconception in sports betting that punters should be looking for situations where betting firms have made a mistake with regards the sports betting odds that they show on their screens.

In nearly all cases this is looking at the problem in the wrong way. There is value to be found in sports betting but not in trying to identify when prices are wrong and where betting firms have made a mistake with their pricing.

Trying to find better odds and probabilities than a professional odds compiler who basically eats, sleeps and breathes the job is one hell of a task and something that I wouldn’t recommend.

But the mass cumulative effect of customer money causes prices to move and they can move away from what should be their correct theoretical price. Betting firms do this for numerous reasons, to attract and deter business at certain prices and to also in some instances reduce exposure and limit risk.

This is when value prices can appear. Like with the David Haye vs Nikolai Valuev world title fight a few weeks ago. I managed to get 2.15 on Valuev but I happen to know that the British public can be a patriotic lot when it comes to backing their own.

Valuev lost that fight narrowly but I was still happy with the bet and I did exactly the same thing a short while later when I managed to get a price of 2.1 on Brazil to beat England which they duly did and by what should have been a much wider margin given the weak team that England fielded.

Over the space of those two bets I showed a narrow profit but in these instances even though I believed the prices to be wrong, the key factor is that in no way did I believe that the betting firm in question had made a mistake. They were offering those prices for clearly thought out strategic reasons.

But that is one of the keys to sports betting successfully, identifying situations not where betting firms have made a mistake but where they have moved their lines for some of the reasons stated above.

see you soon

Carl
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