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England were not at their best last night (they rarely are these days) but the performance was good against Switzerland and the 3-1 win in Basel almost confirms their place in the finals in my mind like I said the other day. The two toughest teams in the group as far as England are concerned are going to be Switzerland followed by Bulgaria. After beating a poor Bulgaria 4-0 last Friday and then the Swiss away from home 3-1 in what is only a five team group then it is going to take something very catastrophic for England not to come top of this group.

The only remaining fixture that could be classed as dodgy for England would be the Bulgaria game in Sofia. The other two teams in this group are good enough to take points off these teams even though Wales do not have a manager as they and John Toshack are certain to part company soon.

I really hope that Fabio Capello learns the lessons from the World Cup and I think he will. I know some people have slated him as being money grabbing but I don’t think so. He is Italian and so he will be a very proud man and he will not want to leave the England job with his name rubbished. He will see the 2012 Euros as being the perfect chance to put right what went wrong in South Africa. Switzerland away from home is a difficult fixture and so I am pleased with the result and the Germany game just seems a little further back this morning with us sitting top of the group with 6 points.

In sports betting and betting in general then a good appreciation of how the market operates is essential for success. How can you possibly know how to beat bookmakers and the market if you do not know how they operate and work? So it is essential then that you know how prices and odds are formed. Usually the prices in the betting market represent a window at a fixed point in time.

The price is deemed to be accurate at that stage with a couple of percentage points. But this generic piece of “wisdom” is a long way from the mark because information from whatever source causes odds to shift. Usually there is a source for an odds shift and the betting firms tend to keep a very close eye on what everyone else is doing. This is to basically protect their own liabilities. If a certain firm is pricing 5/1 for a certain competitor when their true price and the price of everyone else is 2/1 then this firm is going to be taking an awful lot of action that they may not necessarily want.

So prices are pretty much in trim with each other from firm to firm and this is especially the case with the shorter priced runners. Usually it is professional odds compilers that form the basis for odds that are present in the market at a core level. Certain companies have odds compilers that are very strong in certain areas and once this becomes known then other companies often follow them. If you can find out who these companies are and how accurate they are and in what markets then you can base a good betting strategy around that.

Sometimes the sporting world seems to take it for granted that something will happen. Back in 1984 when Jimmy White narrowly lost to Steve Davis in the World Snooker final then it was believed by everyone that Jimmy would win the title one day…..it never happened. The same or similar was said of Greg Rusedski and Tim Henman, if one didn’t win a slam then the other would or both…..it never happened. Colin Montgomerie won numerous European order of merits and was European number one for years and it was just taken for granted that he would win a major….it didn’t happen.

Already there are warning signs for Andy Murray never winning a slam event after being knocked out in the 4th round of the US Open. While being 23 years of age leaves plenty of time on his side, I really don’t think that he would be able to win one at 28 years of age. Most of the major players won their first slam by the time they were 23 years of age. Murray has a habit of being defensive at the wrong times.

He seems to go into his shell during the latter stages of slams and this is going to be difficult to correct. Then when he does try to correct it he then becomes reckless and doesn’t seem to find the right balance. Personally I think he has 4 years left to effectively win a slam as the longer he goes on then it will get tougher mentally. That is only 16 tournaments in my mind and if you take away the ones where he is not fit either physically or mentally then that doesn’t leave an awful lot left.

Colin Montgomerie is clearly going through one of the toughest selection processes ever for the Ryder Cup which begins at Celtic Manor on the 1st October. In past tournaments then the selection process has been pretty straight forward but not this time. Usually there is the problem over one or two wild card picks but as Monty said himself today, he could pick as many as twenty players who would do justice to the team.

When you look at players like Luke Donald, Paul Casey and Padraig Harrington probably all requiring wild cards then it is clear just how tough the process is going to be. I think that the USA team basically picks itself but what will be interesting will be to see how Corey Pavin reacts to all of the adverse publicity surrounding what is supposed to be an “automatic” pick of Tiger Woods.

Personally I do not know which is the best way to go with regards Tiger Woods? If you cannot pick him on merit based on form then do you pick him purely for the effect that it would have on team morale? Or would you deem it to be a wasted selection if Woods is not performing well enough?

We are only just over a month away from the start of the Ryder Cup so the chances to impress the two captains are going to be at a premium. The Johnny Walker event at Gleneagles this weekend should give Monty some more information but then again it could easily make things just as confusing for him.

This summers longest running transfer saga ended yesterday and James Milner finally joined Manchester City to take their summer spending past the £100 million mark. This comes hot on the trail of Mario Balotelli joining earlier in the week. Along with Jerome Boateng, David Silva, Alexander Kolarov and Yaya Toure.

All of these players are quality players but Stephen Ireland and Craig Bellamy have been moved out with Bellamy going out on a season’s loan to Championship side Cardiff City. The big question of course after all of this spending will be can Roberto Mancini turn that into a winning formula and bring a top four finish? Some people are touting the light blues as possible title challengers and they could be dark horses this season.

But to win the title this season then they have to hit the ground running and do that very quickly. Saturday’s 0-0 draw at White Hart Lane against Tottenham was encouraging but City were on the back foot for long periods of that game and keeper Joe Hart was man of the match which sort of told its own story. At the end of the day, Chelsea and Manchester United are settled sides which I think will make the difference.

I think that realistically, City will need a season to settle down but do not write them off as top four material as I think that they will do that this season. But I also feel that it will be the 2010-2011 season that sees them have a serious tilt at the title. I think it is only a matter of time before City win the league but the Chelsea and Manchester United teams look past their best of a few years ago so do not rule City out this season.

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After watching the England vs Hungary International at Wembley stadium last night then I really cannot make my mind up what is happening inside Fabio Capello’s mind. He seems to have changed his story about why England failed so dismally in the World Cup several times. Which is it Fabio? Is it because the players are not fit? Is it because the players cannot handle the pressure of the World Cup or is it the disallowed goal vs. Germany?

I think the blame lies at Fabio’s door first and foremost and I also think that the retirements of Paul Robinson and Wes Brown may have been connected to not wanting to play under Capello. The way that he announced that David Beckham would no longer play for his country in competitive games was poor. If Beckham did not see that interview then it would have been possible for some football fan on the street to have told him and that cannot possibly be right.

England played well in patches against Hungary but I never really expected a great performance to be honest. I thought that the crowd were very forgiving all night apart from the odd booing directed at John Terry and Ashley Cole. I also thought that the attendance of 72,000 was marvellous given that it was so soon after England’s worst ever performance in the World Cup finals. There were encouraging signs from players like Theo Walcott, Ashley Young and especially Adam Johnson.

However if England really are turning to youth then I do not expect England to be a major force at the next European Championships or the next World Cup in 2014 which will be in the heat and humidity of Brazil.

The football season kicked off in England yesterday, well actually it kicked off Friday evening with the Norwich vs Watford game that was live on TV. There have also been Europa League qualifiers as well. I have yet to see my first live game of the season although I think that I am still played up from watching all of the games in the last World Cup.

I will obviously be tuning in to the England vs Hungary friendly on Wednesday for several reasons. Firstly I want to see the size of the crowd, secondly I want to see how they react to the team and thirdly I want to see what sort of team Capello puts out.

The future for England now has to be the young players. It really doesn’t matter what sport you see, young players tend to play without fear. This season though will more than likely see me having far less sports bets than usual due to time restrictions.

So unless a bet really hits me in the face then I will be pulling back this season. But my sports bets do not involve football all that much as the prices tend to be pretty accurate anyway. I tend to sometimes look for subtle arbing opportunities that are not apparent between rival firms but this takes time to look and I simply do not have the time.

The best sports for trading tend to be cricket and tennis due to the scoring mechanisms but this once again involves considerable time. I much prefer to analyse, see prices that I think are wrong…..jump in….then go and do something else.

What exactly is a connected event? Well put quite simply, it is one event that is connected to another where the outcome of one event impacts on the outcome of another. These happen in everyday life and they also happen in sports betting as well.

For example to quote an example in everyday life, if you had a very bad car accident that left you seriously injured then it is clear to see the connection here with losing your job or having to pack in your job. These events are clearly connected. So if you went into a bookies to place a bet on a double (no bookmaker would ever offer such a bet or lay one) of this nature then you would be refused simply because the events are connected.

If a bookmaker did in fact offer you odds of 66/1 on you losing your job and 100/1 on you being involved in a serious car accident then when the first event happens then the second is far more likely to happen. So the bookmaker would allow you individual bets on each event but would not allow a double where the money from the first bet carries over into the second bet.

A sporting example of this could be Wayne Rooney to score for Manchester United and for Manchester United to win. These events are connected and even though bookmakers may allow a bet of this nature, the odds will be very restrictive simply because of the connected nature of the events.

It is never a bad idea to look out for connected events because they can be very lucrative if you can spot subtle ones that bookmakers may have missed.

I never actually thought that I would be talking about Fabio Capello so soon after our World Cup fiasco. But England’s friendly with Hungary in less than two weeks time has me somewhat intrigued as to what sort of team he will field.

Capello is in a very difficult situation now. The older players are clearly not doing the business and if he puts too much faith in youth and building towards future major tournaments then this will surely come too soon for the 2012 European Championships.

In fact a lack of experience could see us in danger of not qualifying so my tip is for him to mix experience with youth. The amount of bad feeling now with regards the England football team is worse than in any other era that I can remember.

Never has so little been delivered in a World Cup by an England team that promised so much. If Capello sticks with his tried and trusted players then the public will switch off. They need to see that we are building towards the 2014 World Cup and beyond and if this means sacrificing the 2012 Euro’s then so be it.

In fact in the heat of Brazil in four years time then it may be the 2016 Euro’s until England next have a major tilt at a major championship again. Personally this may need to happen if we are to make progress but whoever manages England is going to be handicapped severely by any player who puts their club before their country.

Unfortunately for England in the modern climate, this means all of them.

To make money at sports betting then you obviously need to take a view of sport in some capacity. But yet my views do not really mimic the views of the majority of people who bet on sports.

And I for one am very glad of that fact otherwise it would be far more difficult to make money. One may argue that how could it be possible for one person to be right and so many others wrong? Well to that I say this, how many times do you do something that is not only wrong but you also know that it is wrong?

The answer is that you do this more times than you can care to remember and when you factor in all the times that you do something that you are consciously not aware of then you can see the size of the problem. The majority of the betting public think in the same way either because they lack time to analyse things properly or they lack the proper approach.

But yet you do not need specialist knowledge to make money sports betting……..far from it. What I use is an appraisal of odds and probabilities and then I usually take advantage of prices being too low caused by the majority of the betting public taking the opposite view.

Two recent cases in point were my lays of England and Andy Murray in the World Cup and Wimbledon. In both instances I could have got out of these bets with a profit even if either of them had respectively won the tournament. This is the power inherent in how I bet and this also allowed me to get away with a tiny profit despite laying Louis Oosthuizen last week in the Open.