bwin Sportsblog - Football - A great 3-4th place play-off

I don't usually watch the 3rd and 4th place play-off but last night I did. But I did have a bet on the over 2.5 goals which stormed in with plenty of time to spare. So I am going to use that profit from that game to have another bet tonight and that is for the under 2.5 goals in this game. I know that Spain vs Holland is supposed to be one of the dream finals but "dream finals" have a habit of disappointing. Both teams either cancel each other out or one team tries to stifle the other. The Dutch coach has already admitted that he intends to stifle Spain so if this match fails to produce an early goal then I think the under 2.5 goals bet here looks good. It has been a productive World Cup for me so far and I have to say that I laid England after their final group game. I laid them at 11.5-1 when I felt that the true odds should be between 33/1 and 50/1. As it turns out of course, with all the dissension and problems in the camp then England's chances looked more nearer 100/1 than 33/1-50-1. To look at that percentage closely then consider this. England had to play Germany in the 2nd round. Almost certainly Argentina in the quarter-final. Then it would be Spain or Portugal in the semi-final followed by Brazil or Holland in the final. If you take each game as a coin flip then the chances of four consecutive coin flips winning are 6.25%. Keeping in mind that England would have been underdogs against nearly all of those teams then that reduces the percentage still further. In my mind England's chances could have been as small as 0.5%-1% from that stage. If you can assess sporting events in that way then it can help you to find good value in teams or competitors that are too short. Like Andy Murray for example before his semi-final at Wimbledon against Nadal. I laid him at 3.95 when I assessed his chances of being around 7/1 or 8.00.