bwin Sportsblog - Betting Tips - Football betting

To bet on football profitably then you have to understand the mechanics of a game of football from a statistical point of view. Quite often the worst people to listen to are ex-players and pundits who never really get to the core issues of betting on football. There are clear reasons as to why upsets happen in football and why the game is so popular.

The mechanics of the game dictate that although the game is played out over 90 minutes, that when all pauses in play are accounted for that there is really only around 70 minutes of play. If a goalkeeper delays taking a goal kick for 30 seconds then the referee will not always add time on. The effect of this compounds over 90 minutes. So this means that the technically better team have not got as much time to assert their superiority as you may think.

Also in the modern game then it is far easier to teach strong defensive coaching principles and this leads to fewer goals in professional football. Goals decide matches and if there are fewer of them then there are fewer opportunities for a game to end decisive.

Also the side with the ball are actually attacking superior numbers most of the time and this is how football is played. If you think of a 4-4-2 formation then this highlights the case in point. So the lesson is that you shouldn't be too quick to assume that favourites will automatically succeed and to look for situations where they will not.